A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
